SSC Napoli 2-3 Bologna FC 1909 Result — Serie A Final Score & Analysis

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Upset result. Model slightly overestimated SSC Napoli's win probability at 39.8%. Final: SSC Napoli 2-3 Bologna FC 1909.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (85%). The Original projected win probability was SSC Napoli 39.8%, Draw 24.2%, Bologna FC 1909 36.0%.

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC 1909 are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100

Confidence

HIGH · 85%

Matches Analysed

xG Trend

1.60

H2H Avg Goals

2.5

📊

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Sources & References

Model: Poisson regression (Maher 1982; Dixon & Coles 1997)
Data: football-data.org · Sportmonks V3
xG concept: Expected Goals
Track record: Model Accuracy Log

SSC Napoli

Bologna FC 1909

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?