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Editorial Profile

SpinBonus Data Team

Quantitative Sports Analysts & EV Engineers ยท Building every prediction, EV calculation and bonus model on the site.

The SpinBonus Data Team is a collective of quantitative analysts and statistical modellers focused on a single problem: finding mathematically defensible edges in gambling markets. We do not run tips lists, we do not promote affiliate links above EV-positive plays, and we do not publish anything we cannot reproduce from first principles.

Every football prediction on this site is generated by a Poisson regression model we maintain in-house. Every casino bonus review is graded against the same EV formula our EV Calculator uses publicly. Methodology is open and auditable.

Areas of Expertise

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Poisson Regression
Per-team attack/defence ฮป-rates feeding a 7ร—7 score matrix.
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Expected Value (EV)
Bookmaker overround stripping and value detection on 1X2, OU, BTTS.
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Bonus Mathematics
Wagering ROI modelling, slot RTP normalisation, max-bet enforcement.
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Kelly Criterion
Fractional Kelly bankroll sizing for variance-controlled staking.
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xG / Shot Quality
Expected Goals integration as a Poisson ฮป-correction signal.
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Bayesian Updating
In-play model adjustment for live-score and red-card events.

Editorial Principles

1 ยท Math before opinion

Every claim is grounded in a published formula or reproducible dataset. We do not have "feelings" about teams.

2 ยท Affiliate-disclosed, never affiliate-led

We accept commissions from some operators but rankings ignore commission tier โ€” a low-payout brand will outrank a high-payout one if its EV is better.

3 ยท Tracked accuracy, not cherry-picked wins

Our Model Accuracy Tracker logs every published prediction โ€” including misses.

4 ยท Responsible-gambling first

EV models are not get-rich tools. We surface negative-EV bonuses just as clearly as positive ones โ€” see our Responsible Gambling guidance.

Models & Tools We Maintain

EV Engine โ€” Football โ†’
Poisson + market-overround stripper for 1X2 / OU / BTTS.
Model Accuracy Tracker โ†’
Permanent log of every published prediction.
Poker Equity Calculator โ†’
Monte-Carlo 3-way equity and EV for Hold'em.
Casino Bonus EV Calculator โ†’
Strips wagering, max-bet caps and game-weighting to a single ROI.
Kelly Criterion Calculator โ†’
Fractional Kelly bankroll allocator.
No-Vig Fair Odds โ†’
Removes bookmaker overround for honest implied probabilities.

Foundational References

Spotted an error in our methodology?

We treat methodology bugs as urgent. If you've found one, contact us via About.

SpinBonus Data Team โ€” Quantitative Sports Analysts & EV Engineers