Expected value analysis for Italian Serie A fixtures. Powered by SpinBonus EV Engineโข Poisson regression model.
Result diverged from model projection. Final: Torino FC 2-2 Juventus FC. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.
Upset result. Model slightly overestimated US Cremonese's win probability at 68.9%. Final: US Cremonese 1-4 Como 1907.
Upset result. Model slightly overestimated Hellas Verona FC's win probability at 65.5%. Final: Hellas Verona FC 0-2 AS Roma.
Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. US Lecce 1-0 Genoa CFC. Model prediction: correct.
Upset result. Model slightly overestimated AC Milan's win probability at 36.4%. Final: AC Milan 1-2 Cagliari Calcio.
Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. SSC Napoli 1-0 Udinese Calcio. Model prediction: correct.
Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. Parma Calcio 1913 1-0 US Sassuolo Calcio. Model prediction: correct.