ACF Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa CFC Result — Serie A Final Score & Analysis

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Result diverged from model projection. Final: ACF Fiorentina 0-0 Genoa CFC. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was LOW (39%). The Original projected win probability was ACF Fiorentina 29.4%, Draw 22.5%, Genoa CFC 48.1%.

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for ACF Fiorentina vs Genoa CFC are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100

Confidence

LOW · 39%

Matches Analysed

xG Trend

1.40

H2H Avg Goals

4.7

📊

SpinBonus Data Team

Quantitative Sports Analyst

View team profile →

Sources & References

Model: Poisson regression (Maher 1982; Dixon & Coles 1997)
Data: football-data.org · Sportmonks V3
xG concept: Expected Goals
Track record: Model Accuracy Log

ACF Fiorentina

Genoa CFC

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

🎯 Submit Your Pick

💬 Match Discussion(0)

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?