The sharpest free EV tool for football bettors. Our Poisson regression model compares model probability against bookmaker odds to detect +Expected Value in 1X2, Over/Under, and BTTS markets — before the lines move.
Win/Draw/Loss probability vs. bookmaker odds. Identifies when the market overprices an outcome.
Poisson-derived goal expectancy vs. line odds. Detects value in total goals markets.
Team-level scoring probability cross-analysis. Finds mispriced "Yes/No" markets.
Sportmonks V3 API feeds live H2H, form, xG and odds data into the engine.
Attack/defense strength ratios generate per-team goal expectancy (lambda values).
7x7 Poisson probability matrix calculates exact scoreline probabilities.
Model probabilities are compared against bookmaker implied probabilities to detect value.
Data depth (xG, shots, possession trend) determines model confidence: HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW.
EV% = (Model_Probability × Decimal_Odds - 1) × 100
When EV% is positive, the model detects a price inefficiency — the bookmaker is offering odds that exceed the statistical probability of the outcome. This is the mathematical definition of "value."