Premier League Analysis

Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. West Ham United FC 3-0 Leeds United FC. Model prediction: correct.

Result diverged from model projection. Final: Burnley FC 1-1 Wolverhampton Wanderers FC. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.

Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. Fulham FC 2-0 Newcastle United FC. Model prediction: correct.

Result diverged from model projection. Final: Manchester City FC 2-2 Aston Villa FC. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.

Upset result. Model slightly overestimated Brighton & Hove Albion FC's win probability at 34.0%. Final: Brighton & Hove Albion FC 0-3 Manchester United FC.

Against projection. Sunderland AFC overcame a predicted 76.0% away win probability. Final: Sunderland AFC 2-1 Chelsea FC.

Result diverged from model projection. Final: Liverpool FC 1-1 Brentford FC. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.

Upset result. Model slightly overestimated Crystal Palace FC's win probability at 35.9%. Final: Crystal Palace FC 1-2 Arsenal FC.

Result diverged from model projection. Final: Nottingham Forest FC 1-1 AFC Bournemouth. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.

Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. Tottenham Hotspur FC 1-0 Everton FC. Model prediction: correct.