AVS 3-1 FC Porto Result — Primeira Liga Final Score & Analysis

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

✅ PROJECTION ACCURATE

Match outcome aligned with probability distribution. AVS 3-1 FC Porto. Model prediction: correct.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (72%). The Original projected win probability was AVS 34.9%, Draw 30.2%, FC Porto 34.9%.

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for AVS vs FC Porto are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100

Confidence

HIGH · 72%

Matches Analysed

xG Trend

1.00

H2H Avg Goals

2.4

📊

SpinBonus Data Team

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Sources & References

Model: Poisson regression (Maher 1982; Dixon & Coles 1997)
Data: football-data.org · Sportmonks V3
xG concept: Expected Goals
Track record: Model Accuracy Log

AVS

FC Porto

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?