Gil Vicente FC 1-3 FC Arouca Result — Primeira Liga Final Score & Analysis

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Result diverged from model projection. Final: Gil Vicente FC 1-3 FC Arouca. Model registered this as an expected variance outcome.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (91%). The Original projected win probability was Gil Vicente FC 31.0%, Draw 37.9%, FC Arouca 31.0%.

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for Gil Vicente FC vs FC Arouca are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100

Confidence

HIGH · 91%

Matches Analysed

xG Trend

0.70

H2H Avg Goals

2.0

📊

SpinBonus Data Team

Quantitative Sports Analyst

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Sources & References

Model: Poisson regression (Maher 1982; Dixon & Coles 1997)
Data: football-data.org · Sportmonks V3
xG concept: Expected Goals
Track record: Model Accuracy Log

Gil Vicente FC

FC Arouca

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?