FINISHED

NAC Breda

2-0

SC Heerenveen

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Against projection. NAC Breda overcame a predicted 50.9% away win probability. Final: NAC Breda 2-0 SC Heerenveen.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was LOW (39%). The Original projected win probability was NAC Breda 23.4%, Draw 25.7%, SC Heerenveen 50.9%.

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for NAC Breda vs SC Heerenveen are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100
Confidence
LOW · 39%
Matches Analysed
3
xG Trend
0.90
H2H Avg Goals
3.9
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