FINISHED

LDU de Quito

2-0

CA Lanús

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Against projection. LDU de Quito overcame a predicted 49.8% away win probability. Final: LDU de Quito 2-0 CA Lanús.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (76%). The Original projected win probability was LDU de Quito 26.8%, Draw 23.3%, CA Lanús 49.8%.

🎯 Submit Your Pick

Picks are locked — match has started
Explore More
See where LDU de Quito & CA Lanús stand in Copa Libertadores
Copa Libertadores Table →More Fixtures

💬 Match Discussion(0)

0/500 · Be respectful. No links or promo content.
Loading…

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for LDU de Quito vs CA Lanús are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100
Confidence
HIGH · 76%
Matches Analysed
7
xG Trend
1.20
H2H Avg Goals
2.9
📊
SpinBonus Data Team
Quantitative Sports Analyst
View team profile →
Sources & References