FINISHED

CR Flamengo

1-0

Estudiantes de La Plata

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Against projection. CR Flamengo overcame a predicted 39.9% away win probability. Final: CR Flamengo 1-0 Estudiantes de La Plata.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (85%). The Original projected win probability was CR Flamengo 32.4%, Draw 27.7%, Estudiantes de La Plata 39.9%.

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for CR Flamengo vs Estudiantes de La Plata are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100
Confidence
HIGH · 85%
Matches Analysed
10
xG Trend
1.10
H2H Avg Goals
2.9
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