LIVE 28'

EC Vitória

0-0

SC Internacional

💡 Engine Insight

EC Vitória enters as a clear statistical favorite. However, dominant favorites historically underperform against spread expectations.

HIGH SCORING POTENTIALBTTS LIKELYDOMINANT FAVORITEGOALS EXPECTED
⚡ SpinBonus EV Engine™
BEST: Over 2.5 +2.6%
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
Home Win
Model: 69.3% • Implied: 67.8%
+2.2%
✅ VALUE
Draw
Model: 15.0% • Implied: 17.3%
-13%
— NO EDGE
Away Win
Model: 15.7% • Implied: 16.9%
-7.2%
— NO EDGE
📊 Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Model: 80.9% • Implied: 78.9%
+2.6%
✅ VALUE
Under 2.5
Model: 19.1% • Implied: 20.1%
-5.2%
— NO EDGE
🎯 Both Teams to Score
Yes
Model: 71.9% • Implied: 70.3%
+2.3%
✅ VALUE
No
Model: 28.1% • Implied: 28.7%
-2.1%
— NO EDGE
💡 +EV Detected: Optimize Your Market Edge

Our model identified a +2.6% edge on Over 2.5. To effectively capture this mathematical value without losing returns to bookmaker margins (vig), this transaction should strictly be executed on a low-commission exchange.

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🟢 HIGH CONFIDENCE100%
📈 17 matches analyzedStrong data foundation: 17 matches analyzed with xG metrics.

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Explore More
See where EC Vitória & SC Internacional stand in Campeonato Brasileiro Série A
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A Table →More Fixtures

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for EC Vitória vs SC Internacional are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100
Confidence
HIGH · 100%
Matches Analysed
17
xG Trend
3.30
H2H Avg Goals
4.1
📊
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