FINISHED

SC Corinthians Paulista

3-2

São Paulo FC

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Against projection. SC Corinthians Paulista overcame a predicted 36.0% away win probability. Final: SC Corinthians Paulista 3-2 São Paulo FC.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (85%). The Original projected win probability was SC Corinthians Paulista 28.8%, Draw 35.1%, São Paulo FC 36.0%.

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for SC Corinthians Paulista vs São Paulo FC are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100
Confidence
HIGH · 85%
Matches Analysed
5
xG Trend
0.70
H2H Avg Goals
2.3
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