1. FSV Mainz 05 1-3 1. FC Union Berlin Result — Bundesliga Final Score & Analysis

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

❌ PROJECTION DEVIATION

Upset result. Model slightly overestimated 1. FSV Mainz 05's win probability at 62.5%. Final: 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-3 1. FC Union Berlin.

Historical Context: Pre-match model confidence was HIGH (70%). The Original projected win probability was 1. FSV Mainz 05 62.5%, Draw 16.6%, 1. FC Union Berlin 20.9%.

🧮 How was this prediction calculated?

Win probabilities for 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs 1. FC Union Berlin are produced by a Poisson regression model using each side's attack and defence rates against league average. The expected goal counts (λ values) feed a 7×7 score matrix; we then sum the cells to get 1X2, Over/Under and BTTS probabilities. Expected Value is calculated by comparing model probability to the bookmaker implied probability after stripping the overround.

# Poisson per-team expected goals
λ_home = avg_home_goals × home_attack × away_defence
λ_away = avg_away_goals × away_attack × home_defence
# Probability of exact score (h, a)
P(h, a) = (e^-λ_home · λ_home^h / h!) · (e^-λ_away · λ_away^a / a!)
# Expected Value
EV % = (model_probability × decimal_odds − 1) × 100

Confidence

HIGH · 70%

Matches Analysed

xG Trend

3.10

H2H Avg Goals

4.7

📊

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Sources & References

Model: Poisson regression (Maher 1982; Dixon & Coles 1997)
Data: football-data.org · Sportmonks V3
xG concept: Expected Goals
Track record: Model Accuracy Log

1. FSV Mainz 05

1. FC Union Berlin

📊 Post-Match Model Analysis

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🧮 How was this prediction calculated?