Our model identified a +2.5% edge on Under 2.5. To effectively capture this mathematical value without losing returns to bookmaker margins (vig), this transaction should strictly be executed on a low-commission exchange.

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The Primeira Liga clash between GD Estoril Praia and FC Famalicão arrives with a clear statistical narrative. Our Poisson regression model projects GD Estoril Praia as a slight edge, assigning them a 37.5% probability of winning, versus 27.4% for FC Famalicão. A draw sits at 35.1%.

Recent form favors FC Famalicão. GD Estoril Praia has 1 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 fixtures, while FC Famalicão records 2 wins and 1 losses over a similar span.

Model Insight: Defensive metrics dominate this fixture. Under 2.5 goals projects as the highest-probability outcome.

This match profiles as a true toss-up. Double chance and BTTS markets often yield better Expected Value than 1X2 in matches with this probability spread.

Predictions and EV calculations on this page are generated algorithmically. We are not tipsters. Our goal is to detect mathematical value (+EV) using objective data points.

Methodology & Data Sources

• Model: Poisson Regression Model
• Provider: Sportmonks V3 API
• Tracking: Results are permanently logged in our Model Accuracy Tracker
• Updates: Odds and predictions auto-refresh via edge functions.