Our model identified a +1.4% edge on Under 2.5. To effectively capture this mathematical value without losing returns to bookmaker margins (vig), this transaction should strictly be executed on a low-commission exchange.

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The Copa Libertadores clash between CD Tolima and CD Coquimbo Unido arrives with a clear statistical narrative. Our Poisson regression model projects CD Tolima as a slight edge, assigning them a 38.0% probability of winning, versus 34.8% for CD Coquimbo Unido. A draw sits at 27.2%.

Recent form favors CD Coquimbo Unido. CD Tolima has 1 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 fixtures, while CD Coquimbo Unido records 2 wins and 1 losses over a similar span.

Model Insight: Statistical models project a highly competitive encounter. Neither side holds a clear edge, suggesting potential value in draw or BTTS markets.

This match profiles as a true toss-up. Double chance and BTTS markets often yield better Expected Value than 1X2 in matches with this probability spread.

Predictions and EV calculations on this page are generated algorithmically. We are not tipsters. Our goal is to detect mathematical value (+EV) using objective data points.

Methodology & Data Sources

• Model: Poisson Regression Model
• Provider: Sportmonks V3 API
• Tracking: Results are permanently logged in our Model Accuracy Tracker
• Updates: Odds and predictions auto-refresh via edge functions.